Deffo the belt. I had exact same symptom on my BC8500. Look at the tape itself and you'll see that it isn't dead flat, it curls slightly. Good belt tension flattens the tape against the head, poor tension allows the tape to curl away from the head slightly - hence the drop in signal strength on one channel.
I got a new belt from Martin (Dillen) and fitted it myself. Problem disappeared.
Tip: when you prop the lid of the beocenter up to gain access to the tape drive, make sure its secure!
Cheers, Steve.