It says in an article on the home page:

"This draw must be the best kept secret on the internet as we are already having people winning for the second time after only 10 draws!!!"

why is this?

Surely if the draw is honest it is a matter of maths and probabilities that names will win more than once at the start and less often as member numbers increase?

Isn't it always best to be transparent, or am I missing something? 

Andrew 

apetley:

It says in an article on the home page:

"This draw must be the best kept secret on the internet as we are already having people winning for the second time after only 10 draws!!!"

why is this?

Surely if the draw is honest it is a matter of maths and probabilities that names will win more than once at the start and less often as member numbers increase?

Isn't it always best to be transparent, or am I missing something? 

Andrew 

I clearly am missing something......the ability to read properly!! Andrew

I think the article is saying that one's chances of winning are high as there are not that many entries. For prizes as good as these, one would normally expect very little chance! You still have about a one in seventy chance of winning a prize each month so over a year that translates to nearer one in six. Of course the more people that join means that the odds lengthen slightly, but as more people join, the prizes improve.

So that means that we have about 700 gold members?

In that case, the probability of someone not winning at all during a year is

    P = (1 - (10 / 700)) ^ 12 ~= 0.84 (or of course, simply the opposite of the one in six you mention).

Calculating further, the probability of a member winning exactly twice during a year is

    P = (10 / 700) ^ 2                   (two winning months)
        * (1 - (10 / 700)) ^ 10           (ten non-winning months)
        * ( 12! / ( 2! * ( 12 - 2)! )))     (the winning months can be selected in this many ways)
        ~= 0.012

...or little more than one percent. The odds for winning three times in a year would still be better than one in six thousand.

Yes, I have a boring day at work.

Is Stephen Hawking in da house?

 

Yes that's exactly the figures I got too......... cough........ cough......

 

Chris.

Figures? What figures! All I can see is ASCII. I used to be able to draw a car using ASCII.

Actually, I did try to work out the odds too but my wife caught me staring at my fingers and counting out loud then warned me about how much it hurt last time.

I don't even get the initial question!!

 

Snap!!

What I think the OP was saying is. You would expct members to win for a second time lese and less as the draws go on. Due to the fact there are a greater number of members each draw as more people join as gold members. Hope that made sense.

 

Craig

Is it not true the random number generator could draw the same number for all ten prizes? As I understand it, it doesn't remove the number from the draw after it has been drawn.

britops:

Is it not true the random number generator could draw the same number for all ten prizes? As I understand it, it doesn't remove the number from the draw after it has been drawn.

 

That I also how I believe it works.

 

Craig

tournedos:

P = (1 - (10 / 700)) ^ 12 ~= 0.84 (or of course, simply the opposite of the one in six you mention).

1 - 0.84 = 0.16 ~= 1/6

britops:

Is it not true the random number generator could draw the same number for all ten prizes? As I understand it, it doesn't remove the number from the draw after it has been drawn.

Correct. the number generator is asked to draw 10 random numbers between 1 and the latest member number. It is not asked to generate unique numbers, and although i'm sure the chances are slim (i'm sure someone will come up with the odds) - i have tested the generator numerous times and it has indeed come up with the same number twice on two occasions.

Lee

 

 

9 LEE:

britops:

Is it not true the random number generator could draw the same number for all ten prizes? As I understand it, it doesn't remove the number from the draw after it has been drawn.

Correct. the number generator is asked to draw 10 random numbers between 1 and the latest member number. It is not asked to generate unique numbers, and although i'm sure the chances are slim (i'm sure someone will come up with the odds) - i have tested the generator numerous times and it has indeed come up with the same number twice on two occasions.

Lee

 

 

Well that is how I would expect a random number generator to work. No I don't know the odds either.

 

Craig

9 LEE:

Correct. the number generator is asked to draw 10 random numbers between 1 and the latest member number.

I hope this is implemented properly, and not like "rand() modulo 700", which would weigh the beginning of the number range

(No, I'm not serious. But I once came across a vote count program, which would use an operation like the above for resolving ties. And this was in a technical university...)

-mika
 

Can't Compute.. Can't Compute.. Self Destruct !!!

9 LEE:

it has indeed come up with the same number twice on two occasions.

Lee

 

 

Oh good, I'm about due a trip to Eastbourne!

Andy T.

9 LEE:

Can't Compute.. Can't Compute.. Self Destruct !!!

Lee, where do you find all these pictures you attatch to your posts.

 

Craig