General Forum

Re: Any mathematicians out there?

wirralsimon — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 08:42:17 GMT

Justin:

Probably of winning in one draw =1/550

Probability of not winning in one draw = 1 - 1/550 = 549/550

Probability of not winning any prizes in 120 draws (a year) = (549/550)^120 = 0.8

Probability of winning more than zero prizes in a year = 1 - Probability of not winning any prizes in 120 draws (a year) = 1 - 0.8 = 0.2 or 20% => 1 in 5

On any particular draw, the probability of winning a prize is still 1 in 550; the draw machine (hopefully) has no memory of previous draws

I did a maths degree over 20 years ago so this may be flakey

(549/550)^120 = 0.804 rather than 0.8000, so you have the same result (80.4% of winning, 19.6% chance of not winning a prize) as a few of us.

Simon

Re: Any mathematicians out there?

Justin — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 06:36:41 GMT

Probably of winning in one draw =1/550

Probability of not winning in one draw = 1 - 1/550 = 549/550

Probability of not winning any prizes in 120 draws (a year) = (549/550)^120 = 0.8

Probability of winning more than zero prizes in a year = 1 - Probability of not winning any prizes in 120 draws (a year) = 1 - 0.8 = 0.2 or 20% => 1 in 5

On any particular draw, the probability of winning a prize is still 1 in 550; the draw machine (hopefully) has no memory of previous draws

I did a maths degree over 20 years ago so this may be flakey

Re: Any mathematicians out there?

Large48 — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 05:31:24 GMT

Any one draw = 1 / number of gold members.

Simple solution = remove lots of gold members to increase your odds*......;-)

The chance of winning 1 draw is 1/550

The chance of winning a prize is 120 goes at 1/550.

Then argue if you think this makes you feel you have a better chance of winning anything!

Always wondered why the draw was held in reverse order? if you can win multiple prizes in each draw it doesn't matter what order its done it!

*Now where's my white cat?

Re: Any mathematicians out there?

soundproof — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 18:02:31 GMT

wirralsimon:

Approximately a 0.02% chance.

Simon

Hmmm - excellent odds, compared to what people otherwise gamble on.

Re: Any mathematicians out there?

Peter — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 16:58:12 GMT

Compared to most draws the odds are fantastic! I don't think you will get many draws where the top prize is only a 1 in 550 chance when it is worth several thousand pounds and the monthly stake is £2.50. And you get the chance to win 9 other prizes as well! I think we expected rather more people to sign up for this - so make hay whilst you can!

Re: Any mathematicians out there?

DavidOd — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 15:59:00 GMT

These odds are surely greater than the weekends lotto draw.

What is a good optimal chance of winning?

With 550 prize candidates, at what point (number of potential winners) do the number of prizes have to be increased ( to say 20 prizes ) to maintain fair winning odds?

Re: Any mathematicians out there?

wirralsimon — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 15:49:31 GMT

DavidOd:

So..it is actually possible to win the top prize more than Once in a year?

What are the odds on a single individual doing that?

Approximately a 0.02% chance.

Simon

Re: Any mathematicians out there?

DavidOd — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 15:40:02 GMT

So..it is actually possible to win the top prize more than Once in a year?

What are the odds on a single individual doing that?

Re: Any mathematicians out there?

Puncher — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 08:06:44 GMT

and, slightly more worringly, here is the probability of throwing a dice and getting at least one six, across 25 attempts - no wonder I'm crap at board games!

Re: Any mathematicians out there?

Puncher — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 06:30:18 GMT

saf:

You are not thick at all, Puncher – and I can confess a sudden need for a couple of cans (“probably” at least two) yesterday in order to refresh what I’d learned at school long time ago…

.........that's where I went wrong! I wouldn't care but it's my normal solution to problem solving!

Re: Any mathematicians out there?

saf — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 06:16:26 GMT

You are not thick at all, Puncher – and I can confess a sudden need for a couple of cans (“probably” at least two) yesterday in order to refresh what I’d learned at school long time ago…

At least we all came with something (an easy formula perhaps? ) Lee can now “probably” adapt to keep people’s chances of winning a price here on BeoWorld constantly attractive … as documented, they are indeed just that!

PS Mika should teach in his spare time, btw – he could make some extra money!

Re: Any mathematicians out there?

Puncher — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 04:35:12 GMT

- seems I am as thick as I feared!

I actually dug out my maths books last night to have a bit of a "refresher"............... the sad thing is, I used to know stuff like this. I blame Wednesdays© - I must lose something useful everytime jandyt fills my head with another useless fact - I think the merits of sock weighing may have been responsible for me losing this particular corner of what's left of my maths brain

Anyhoo, thanks to saf and Mika for keeping us right, the chance of winning any prize within a year is indeed 19.6 percent, and as the draws roll by -

Re: Any mathematicians out there?

soundproof — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 03:03:52 GMT

Thanks for the run-through, guys. Factor in the variables (multiple wins, etc), then the probability is reduced.

Re: Any mathematicians out there?

Opman — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 16:38:43 GMT

If you toss a coin you have a 50/50 chance it will be heads.

If you toss a coin ten times in a row and each times it falls tails, the eleventh time you toss it, it will still be 50/50 it will land heads.

The law of probability would suggest that the greater number of consecutive results should mean that the following toss will bring a different result. But there are still only two outcomes of a single coin toss (assuming we discount the possibility of it landing on its edge but lets not get into that!)

I conclude that you must have a 1 in however many eligible members at the time of the draw.

Opman

Re: Any mathematicians out there?

wirralsimon — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 16:20:34 GMT

Ilikehifi:

wirralsimon:

...the chances of winning a prize in any one year are around 19.6%

Moral of the story: Never argue with a Statistician!

Simon

So basically, what one needs to do is sign up, then get another four friends and relatives to sign up, then you are guaranteed a prize.

Sorted!

In which case there is still a 33% chance that you will win nothing at all, but on the plus side Beoworld gets more money to pay it's running costs!

Simon