General Forum

Re: Prize Draw TONIGHT !!

Puncher — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 16:31:09 GMT

tournedos:
Puncher:

Ahem!......... since when have they been giving an extra two prizes away???
Got me there! I blame the bottle of Chilean rosé I had lying around

OK - as an assignment, please calculate the correlation function that links A/ the probability of correct calculating probability questions to B/ the quantity of Chilean Rosé consumed!

Re: Prize Draw TONIGHT !!

tournedos — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 16:19:31 GMT

Puncher:
Ahem!......... since when have they been giving an extra two prizes away???

Got me there! I blame the bottle of Chilean rosé I had lying around

Re: Prize Draw TONIGHT !!

Puncher — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 16:13:04 GMT

tournedos:

joeyboygolf:
So what are the odds on winning all 10 in one draw!!!
Since they apparently are completely independent events, the probability for that is simply 1/550 ^ 12 ~= 1.3e-33, which is 32 zeros after the decimal point, or 0.0000000000000000000000000000000013... or in other words pretty d*mn slim
The odds for winning twice in the same draw are then 1/550 * 1/550 = something like 1 : 300,000. It most probably will happen sometime during the next 25000 years or so, unless the Klingons start to join as gold members en masse...

Ahem!......... since when have they been giving an extra two prizes away???

Re: Prize Draw TONIGHT !!

Puncher — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 16:11:18 GMT

Discounting any effect due to luck, it would seem to be 1 in 2.77287206 × 10²⁷!

- there's only jandyt that has much of a chance then!

Re: Prize Draw TONIGHT !!

tournedos — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 16:07:02 GMT

joeyboygolf:
So what are the odds on winning all 10 in one draw!!!

Since they apparently are completely independent events, the probability for that is simply 1/550 ^ 12 ~= 1.3e-33, which is 32 zeros after the decimal point, or 0.0000000000000000000000000000000013... or in other words pretty d*mn slim

The odds for winning twice in the same draw are then 1/550 * 1/550 = something like 1 : 300,000. It most probably will happen sometime during the next 25000 years or so, unless the Klingons start to join as gold members en masse...

Re: Prize Draw TONIGHT !!

joeyboygolf — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 15:53:24 GMT

So what are the odds on winning all 10 in one draw!!!

Re: Prize Draw TONIGHT !!

9 LEE — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 12:45:33 GMT

tournedos:
10 / 550 * 12 = 0.22. More than one fifth! Where's my prize then?
(this was a little simplified equation, since you can't win more than once in a given draw, but you get the idea...)

You can win more than once in a draw, it just hasn't happened yet!

I don't see why if you win 10th Prize you should be excluded from winning the rest. In the random number generator i ask for 10 random numbers, not unique ones. I have tested it in practice and it has only twice given me the same numbers in a sequence, but it proves it works that way.

Lee

So, what are the odds now?!!

Re: Prize Draw TONIGHT !!

tournedos — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 12:08:02 GMT

9 LEE:
Currently about 550.
What are the odds of winning during the 12 Months then? Stats please from one of our maths boffins!

10 / 550 * 12 = 0.22. More than one fifth! Where's my prize then?

(this was a little simplified equation, since you can't win more than once in a given draw, but you get the idea...)

Re: Prize Draw TONIGHT !!

9 LEE — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 12:03:04 GMT

TerryM:
As a matter of interest,(need to work out the odds),how many Gold members are there?

Currently about 550.

What are the odds of winning during the 12 Months then? Stats please from one of our maths boffins!

Lee

Re: Prize Draw TONIGHT !!

TerryM — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 07:50:50 GMT

As a matter of interest,(need to work out the odds),how many Gold members are there?

Re: Prize Draw TONIGHT !!

9 LEE — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 06:45:38 GMT

35 days hath September, April, June and November. All the rest have 36 excepting February alone which has 34 on a leap year etc etc.

Didn't anyone learn that rhyme at school?

Ahem...

(Will fix it...)

Lee

Re: Prize Draw TONIGHT !!

Tom — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 06:42:13 GMT

britops:
only 35 days to the next draw ???

Can't be true, or does June have more than 30 days in GB??

Re: Prize Draw TONIGHT !!

darren — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 06:07:44 GMT

Nooooooooooo!!!!!

Re: Prize Draw TONIGHT !!

Sun, 01 Jun 2008 05:27:36 GMT

only 35 days to the next draw ???

Re: Prize Draw TONIGHT !!

darren — Sat, 31 May 2008 14:49:30 GMT

seems my putting isn't up to standard, out in the first round.

At least I am here for the draw